Every dollar is tracked against real quotes and time-stamped. We don't publish the dollars yet because at this sample size they are statistically noise — we pre-registered the dates we'll read them (2026-10-01 / 2026-12-31) and the conditions under which we'll call the experiment dead. What we publish now is what can actually be evaluated today: whether the system's stated probabilities are calibrated, whether its claims beat chance, and what it learned this week.
Stance: BASE · regime COMPLICATED
The active base book holds a Bull Call Spread (770.0/782.0). The dominant net exposure is long delta. The primary risk is a down-fade below the 770 strike, breaking the 769 Put Wall and invalidating the structural count. An up-overshoot above 782 is capped by the short call...
— the Portfolio Manager's stated key risk, verbatim
Where SPY sits right now against the Vision Scout's wave count and every open position's levels — each column is one thesis, the bright line is spot. Levels and spot are as of the last committee pulse, refreshed three times per trading day; the tape is not streaming. See the key below for what each mark means.
Calibration: when the committee says HIGH confidence, does it win more often than when it says LOW? This is the curve that shows learning — hit rate grouped by the confidence stated before the outcome was known. Cells appear only once they reach 3 resolved calls.
| HIGH | 75.0% | 3W/1L | |
| MEDIUM | 39.3% | 11W/17L |
| HIGH | 50.0% | 6W/6L | |
| MEDIUM | 57.1% | 8W/6L |
These are raw hit rates — not yet adjusted for how often a level is reached by chance. Whether the committee's reads actually beat a geometric null is the pre-registered skill-vs-chance verdict, read out 2026-10-01; we don't cite it before.
The chart-reading desk commits to a direction with a target and an invalidation level, then the market resolves it. Shown: the call and how it scored — not the wave count behind it.
7W / 6L resolved · hit rate 53.8% · 1 open
| OPEN | BULL | 2026-08-07 | |
| WIN | BULL | 2026-08-04 | +0.38% |
| WIN | BULL | 2026-08-04 | +0.61% |
| WIN | BULL | 2026-08-03 | +0.50% |
| LOSS | BEAR | 2026-07-30 | -0.74% |
| LOSS | BULL | 2026-07-29 | -0.01% |
| WIN | BEAR | 2026-07-27 | +1.02% |
| WIN | BULL | 2026-07-24 | +0.55% |
Hit rate here is raw, not chance-adjusted — a target close to spot is easy to reach. Whether the reads beat the geometric null is the pre-registered verdict (2026-10-01).
→ The HEW Scout's multi-ticker shadow tracking record — the same wave-reading method run daily across SPY, QQQ and the megacaps, each call scored by first passage. Shadow / paper research, not advice.
Each specialist desk names a market regime and stakes a falsifiable claim on it. Shown: the latest call and each desk's track record where claims have resolved.
| Dealer-Flow Desk | CALL WALL PIN · MEDIUM | 54.1% | 20W/17L · 2 open |
| Desk | — | 84.6% | 11W/2L · 0 open |
| Systematic-Flow Desk | POST-EVENT-VOL-CRUSH · MEDIUM | 100.0% | 7W/0L · 2 open |
| Vol-Supply Desk | VOLATILITY TRANSITION · MEDIUM | 100.0% | 16W/0L · 1 open |
When the committee decides not to trade, that decision is scored too: did passing dodge a loser, or miss a mover? Most desks never grade their own restraint. This one does.
11 wise / 8 costly · 57.9% of passes dodged a loser
Currently tracking a declined BULL setup.
| costly pass | declined BULL | 2026-08-11 | +0.31% |
| costly pass | declined BULL | 2026-08-05 | +0.38% |
| costly pass | declined BULL | 2026-08-04 | +3.94% |
| wise pass | declined BEAR | 2026-07-31 | -0.50% |
| wise pass | declined BULL | 2026-07-29 | -0.01% |
| costly pass | declined BEAR | 2026-07-29 | +0.95% |