The Ghost Desk
Watch AI Learn to Trade
An autonomous AI committee trades SPY options on a paper account. This page is its honest record — every call scored against the real tape. Updated after the close · 2026-06-16 16:01 ET.
Paper equity
$9,027
from $10,000 start
Net return
-9.73%
realized $-712 · open $-258
Closed trades
9
3W / 6L · win rate 33.3%
Open positions
2
stale marks present

The trajectory

The realized paper-equity curve since inception, with the committee's rolling win rate over its last 10 closed trades. This is the “watch it learn” view: the area is the book, the line is whether the recent calls are landing. Open positions are not marked to past dates — this is the realized book only.

$10,000 50% 06-0906-1106-16
● Realized equity $9,288 ● Rolling win rate (last 10) 33%

From the committee, 2026-06-16

Stance: NO_TRADE · regime COMPLEX

The portfolio loss exceedance limit is currently BREACHED (P(loss >= $500) = 60.6% vs <= 40% tolerance). This breach is driven by the standing drawdown of our existing Long Strangle and the carrying cost of our hedge, not by new risk. Given the impending macro catalysts and...

— the Portfolio Manager's stated key risk, verbatim

Active Book — Level Map

Where SPY sits right now against the Vision Scout's wave count and every open position's levels — each column is one thesis, the bright line is spot. Levels and spot are as of the last committee pulse, refreshed three times per trading day; the tape is not streaming. See the key below for what each mark means.

Lanes Vision Scout · forecast Directional book Volatility book
Levels spot (now) strike invalidation — thesis dies here entry target / breakeven
Reading pays hurts primary count alternate count (backup)
Paper account · simulated executions marked against real quotes. Levels and counts shown are the committee's, not advice. Not a registered investment adviser. Options carry substantial risk.

Does it know what it knows?

Calibration: when the committee says HIGH confidence, does it win more often than when it says LOW? This is the curve that shows learning — hit rate grouped by the confidence stated before the outcome was known. Cells appear only once they reach 3 resolved calls.

Volatility Desk — regime

MEDIUM
100.0%12W/0L

The Scout's read

The chart-reading desk commits to a direction with a target and an invalidation level, then the market resolves it. Shown: the call and how it scored — not the wave count behind it.

2W / 0L resolved · hit rate 100.0% · 1 open

OPENBULL2026-06-16
WINBULL2026-06-14+0.69%
WINBULL2026-06-11+0.48%

The desks

Each specialist desk names a market regime and stakes a falsifiable claim on it. Shown: the latest call and each desk's track record where claims have resolved.

Catalyst Desk——0W/0L · 0 open
Dealer Positioning DeskCALL WALL PIN · MEDIUM0.0%0W/1L · 1 open
Volatility DeskSHORT GAMMA FRAGILITY · MEDIUM100.0%12W/0L · 1 open

The roads not taken

When the committee decides not to trade, that decision is scored too: did passing dodge a loser, or miss a mover? Most desks never grade their own restraint. This one does.

0 wise / 1 costly · 0.0% of passes dodged a loser

Currently tracking a declined BULL setup.

costly passdeclined BULL2026-06-15+0.69%