Every dollar is tracked against real quotes and time-stamped. We don't publish the dollars yet because at this sample size they are statistically noise — we pre-registered the dates we'll read them (2026-10-01 / 2026-12-31) and the conditions under which we'll call the experiment dead. What we publish now is what can actually be evaluated today: whether the system's stated probabilities are calibrated, whether its claims beat chance, and what it learned this week.
Stance: BASE · regime COMPLICATED
The active book holds a dominant bearish net exposure via two Bear Put Spreads (long 776/777, short 764/765) and a Long Straddle. The primary risk is an up-overshoot breaking the 781.62 invalidation, which would zero out the debit spreads (though the straddle would catch...
— the Portfolio Manager's stated key risk, verbatim
Where SPY sits right now against the Vision Scout's wave count and every open position's levels — each column is one thesis, the bright line is spot. Levels and spot are as of the last committee pulse, refreshed three times per trading day; the tape is not streaming. See the key below for what each mark means.
Calibration: when the committee says HIGH confidence, does it win more often than when it says LOW? This is the curve that shows learning — hit rate grouped by the confidence stated before the outcome was known. Cells appear only once they reach 3 resolved calls.
| HIGH | 71.4% | 5W/2L | |
| MEDIUM | 39.1% | 18W/28L |
| HIGH | 45.5% | 10W/12L | |
| MEDIUM | 52.0% | 13W/12L |
These are raw hit rates — not yet adjusted for how often a level is reached by chance. Whether the committee's reads actually beat a geometric null is the pre-registered skill-vs-chance verdict, read out 2026-10-01; we don't cite it before.
The chart-reading desk commits to a direction with a target and an invalidation level, then the market resolves it. Shown: the call and how it scored — not the wave count behind it.
10W / 10L resolved · hit rate 50.0% · 1 open
| OPEN | BEAR | 2026-10-07 | |
| WIN | BULL | 2026-10-02 | +0.56% |
| LOSS | BEAR | 2026-09-30 | -0.91% |
| LOSS | BULL | 2026-09-30 | -0.76% |
| WIN | BULL | 2026-09-21 | +0.76% |
| LOSS | BEAR | 2026-09-16 | -0.95% |
| LOSS | BULL | 2026-09-16 | -0.53% |
| WIN | BEAR | 2026-09-15 | +0.28% |
Hit rate here is raw, not chance-adjusted — a target close to spot is easy to reach. Whether the reads beat the geometric null is the pre-registered verdict (2026-10-01).
→ The HEW Scout's multi-ticker shadow tracking record — the same wave-reading method run daily across SPY, QQQ and the megacaps, each call scored by first passage. Shadow / paper research, not advice.
Each specialist desk names a market regime and stakes a falsifiable claim on it. Shown: the latest call and each desk's track record where claims have resolved.
| Dealer-Flow Desk | CALL WALL PIN · MEDIUM | 63.1% | 41W/24L · 1 open |
| Desk | — | 85.7% | 18W/3L · 0 open |
| Systematic-Flow Desk | MIXED / OFF-AXIS · MEDIUM | 100.0% | 18W/0L · 2 open |
| Vol-Supply Desk | LONG GAMMA INSULATION · HIGH | 100.0% | 24W/0L · 1 open |
When the committee decides not to trade, that decision is scored too: did passing dodge a loser, or miss a mover? Most desks never grade their own restraint. This one does.
5 passes scored so far — accruing; the rate is withheld until 10 are scored.
22 more were declined adds — the book already held that direction — and are not scored as passes.
3 more have no record of the book at the pass and are not scored.
Currently tracking a declined BEAR setup.
| not scored (book unknown) | declined BULL | 2026-10-09 | +0.10% |
| declined to add | declined BULL | 2026-10-05 | +0.61% |
| declined to add | declined BEAR | 2026-10-02 | -0.83% |
| declined to add | declined BEAR | 2026-10-01 | +0.47% |
| declined to add | declined BULL | 2026-09-29 | -1.02% |
| not scored (book unknown) | declined BULL | 2026-09-25 | -0.68% |