Every dollar is tracked against real quotes and time-stamped. We don't publish the dollars yet because at this sample size they are statistically noise — we pre-registered the dates we'll read them (2026-10-01 / 2026-12-31) and the conditions under which we'll call the experiment dead. What we publish now is what can actually be evaluated today: whether the system's stated probabilities are calibrated, whether its claims beat chance, and what it learned this week.
Stance: BASE · regime COMPLEX
The base book is net short delta via two Bear Put Spreads (capping at 765 and 759) and one Bear Call Spread (short strike 779). The primary risk is a sharp up-overshoot driven by the RSP-led breadth divergence (RSP +1.00 vs SPY -0.35) forcing a short-covering squeeze, which...
— the Portfolio Manager's stated key risk, verbatim
Where SPY sits right now against the Vision Scout's wave count and every open position's levels — each column is one thesis, the bright line is spot. Levels and spot are as of the last committee pulse, refreshed three times per trading day; the tape is not streaming. See the key below for what each mark means.
Calibration: when the committee says HIGH confidence, does it win more often than when it says LOW? This is the curve that shows learning — hit rate grouped by the confidence stated before the outcome was known. Cells appear only once they reach 3 resolved calls.
| HIGH | 75.0% | 6W/2L | |
| MEDIUM | 39.1% | 18W/28L |
| HIGH | 47.8% | 11W/12L | |
| MEDIUM | 52.0% | 13W/12L |
These are raw hit rates — not yet adjusted for how often a level is reached by chance. Whether the committee's reads actually beat a geometric null is the pre-registered skill-vs-chance verdict, read out 2026-10-01; we don't cite it before.
The chart-reading desk commits to a direction with a target and an invalidation level, then the market resolves it. Shown: the call and how it scored — not the wave count behind it.
10W / 10L resolved · hit rate 50.0% · 1 open
| OPEN | BEAR | 2026-10-15 | |
| WIN | BULL | 2026-10-02 | +0.56% |
| LOSS | BEAR | 2026-09-30 | -0.91% |
| LOSS | BULL | 2026-09-30 | -0.76% |
| WIN | BULL | 2026-09-21 | +0.76% |
| LOSS | BEAR | 2026-09-16 | -0.95% |
| LOSS | BULL | 2026-09-16 | -0.53% |
| WIN | BEAR | 2026-09-15 | +0.28% |
Hit rate here is raw, not chance-adjusted — a target close to spot is easy to reach. Whether the reads beat the geometric null is the pre-registered verdict (2026-10-01).
→ The HEW Scout's multi-ticker shadow tracking record — the same wave-reading method run daily across SPY, QQQ and the megacaps, each call scored by first passage. Shadow / paper research, not advice.
Each specialist desk names a market regime and stakes a falsifiable claim on it. Shown: the latest call and each desk's track record where claims have resolved.
| Dealer-Flow Desk | NEGATIVE VANNA CHOP · MEDIUM | 60.6% | 43W/28L · 1 open |
| Desk | — | 81.8% | 18W/4L · 0 open |
| Systematic-Flow Desk | SHOCK DE-LEVERAGING · MEDIUM | 100.0% | 20W/0L · 3 open |
| Vol-Supply Desk | VOLATILITY TRANSITION · MEDIUM | 100.0% | 25W/0L · 2 open |
When the committee decides not to trade, that decision is scored too: did passing dodge a loser, or miss a mover? Most desks never grade their own restraint. This one does.
5 passes scored so far — accruing; the rate is withheld until 10 are scored.
23 more were declined adds — the book already held that direction — and are not scored as passes.
3 more have no record of the book at the pass and are not scored.
Currently tracking a declined BEAR setup.
| declined to add | declined BEAR | 2026-10-15 | +1.63% |
| not scored (book unknown) | declined BULL | 2026-10-09 | +0.10% |
| declined to add | declined BULL | 2026-10-05 | +0.61% |
| declined to add | declined BEAR | 2026-10-02 | -0.83% |
| declined to add | declined BEAR | 2026-10-01 | +0.47% |
| declined to add | declined BULL | 2026-09-29 | -1.02% |